{"curator_layer":{"default_duration_days":14,"description":"A named human curator (the Peryl Risk Team) may publish a public, time-bounded adjustment of up to \u00b15 points to the algorithmic score, with attached rationale and sources. All adjustments are archived permanently and visible at /curator. The Curator Layer exists to capture context the algorithm cannot \u2014 emerging second-order risks, regime shifts, and asymmetric information that institutional methodology committees structurally cannot address at the speed required. Bounded so no single human judgment dominates the algorithm.","max_adjustment":5,"maximum_duration_days":30,"name":"Curator Layer","principles":["Bounded: maximum \u00b15 points (algorithm always dominates).","Attributed: every adjustment has a named curator and rationale.","Time-limited: 14-day default, 30-day maximum.","Immutable: once published, adjustments cannot be edited \u2014 corrections are made by withdrawal plus new publication.","Public: full archive at /curator, visible forever."]},"levels":[{"meaning":"Stable conditions across most domains","name":"Low","range":"0-24"},{"meaning":"Mixed signals; localized risks but no global crisis","name":"Moderate","range":"25-49"},{"meaning":"Multiple stressors active; heightened global concern","name":"Elevated","range":"50-74"},{"meaning":"Severe risk environment; coordinated response needed","name":"High","range":"75-100"}],"pillars":[{"data_signal":"Weighted average of GDELT tone and aggregated Polymarket adverse-outcome probabilities","description":"Composite geopolitical stress signal: 50% GDELT news tone over conflict-related coverage (negative tone = rising international tensions) + 50% aggregate of curated Polymarket prediction markets on major geopolitical events (Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, Iran nuclear, Israel-Hezbollah). Media sentiment and market consensus combined.","name":"Geopolitical","source":"GDELT Project + Polymarket prediction markets","source_url":"https://www.gdeltproject.org","weight":0.3},{"data_signal":"Weighted average of VIX and BAML HY Spread, each normalized 0-100","description":"Composite financial stress signal: 50% CBOE Volatility Index (equity volatility / investor fear) + 50% BAML US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (credit risk premium for sub-investment-grade corporate debt). Both widen when financial stress is elevated.","name":"Financial","source":"U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED) \u2014 VIX & BAML HY Spread","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org","weight":0.25},{"data_signal":"Weighted average of EONET event severity and FIRMS daily fire detection count","description":"Composite climate stress signal: 50% NASA EONET active named natural events (wildfires, severe storms, volcanoes, floods, weighted by category severity) + 50% NASA FIRMS satellite-detected active fires globally (VIIRS NOAA-20 near-real-time, filtered to nominal+high confidence). Editorial event tracking combined with raw satellite fire intensity.","name":"Climate","source":"NASA Earth Observatory (EONET) + NASA FIRMS","source_url":"https://eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov","weight":0.25},{"data_signal":"Weighted average of recency-weighted WHO alerts and aggregated Polymarket adverse-outcome probabilities","description":"Composite health stress signal: 50% WHO Disease Outbreak News alerts (official outbreak notifications, recency-weighted) + 50% aggregate of curated Polymarket pandemic markets (new pandemic, COVID variant of concern, Ebola pandemic). Official lagging indicators combined with forward-looking market consensus.","name":"Health","source":"World Health Organization + Polymarket prediction markets","source_url":"https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news","weight":0.2}],"principles":["Transparency: All sources are public, free, and authoritative.","Resilience: Each pillar has graceful fallbacks; the system stays live even when a source is temporarily unavailable.","Calibration: Scoring formulas are tuned against real-world data ranges, not theoretical assumptions.","Independence: No single source can dominate the index; weights ensure balance across domains.","Judgment: The algorithm is augmented by a public, bounded, attributed human overlay \u2014 the Curator Layer \u2014 visible at /curator."],"score_range":"0-100","summary":"The Peryl Global Risk Score is a real-time, weighted composite reading of global risk, updated every 15 minutes. It blends four independent algorithmic pillars (each composed of multiple data sources curated by leading public institutions and prediction markets) with a public, attributed, time-bounded human judgment overlay of up to \u00b15 points \u2014 the Curator Layer.","title":"How the Peryl Global Risk Score Works","update_cadence":"Every 15 minutes","version":"2.1.0"}